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Shipping to America
The vulnerability of our shipping routes remains underdiscussed, perhaps that is in some ways a good thing: We study the macroeconomic and trade-policy implications of disruptions to U.S.-bound shipping routes. Standard models treat them as iceberg-cost shocks, conflating the shock with the response to it. Using satellite vessel-tracking data, we construct route-level measures of potential…
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The Aberrational Century
It’s the end of September, and that means I am busy working on the Q4 quarterly call (out early October). I decided to surface to share two tables I find absolutely fascinating. The first table (above) compares the 10-year bonds and the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage across two distinct time periods: The present era, back……
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